On November 26, 2018, in the Kerch Strait area, there was a small maritime conflict between the border boats of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation and tug vessels of the Ukrainian Navy. After this conflict and on its formal basis, the Ukrainian government introduced the so-called “martial law” (ML) in the country for a month.
“How should these events be interpreted?” our readers ask us.
First of all, it is worthwhile to remember V. I. Lenin’s words that we all will remain stupid fools in politics, if we do not learn to see the interests of certain social classes underlying these or those events, actions, facts and incidents. This means, in this case, that the maritime conflict did not occur by chance, but was organized by the Ukrainian oligarchy on the instructions of its western “partners” and, possibly, in collusion with a part of the RF biggest bourgeoisie.
What did the imperialists need this conflict for? It is safe to assume the following.In the Ukraine, as it turns out, there are still quite a lot of assets belonging to the Russian oligarchy. With the introduction of “martial law” (under any vain pretext), the state that has been attacked, has the right to confiscate the assets and holdings of the foreign abuser. In other words, such a “martial law” is a legitimate excuse for the next local redistribution of capitalist property or the market. This redistribution of assets and the arrest (confiscation) of money holdings of the Russian Federation (which are considerable currency sums) gives the Ukrainian and American bourgeoisie almost pure “gangster” income, when quite cheap, with little expenditure of capital and government forces, billions fall into the pockets of one handful of international robbers looted before by another gangster bunch.
Provocation of the conflict in the Kerch Strait, undoubtedly, is aimed at probing the combat readiness of the Black Sea Fleet and the North Caucasus Military District of the Russian Federation. Such “reconnaissance in force” is very important for the West, since tracking the actions of the Russian armed forces in this situation reveals, in general terms, the nature of operational deployment and grouping that can be effected by the Russian Federation in the struggle for control of the Black Sea and the Caucasus in the initial operations of the future war for the redistribution of this crucially important region.
For that matter: the Ukraine’s introduction of “martial law” may lead to the closure of the Turkish straits for the merchant (oil and gas) marine of the Russian Federation – under the pretext of its becoming the aggressor country and based on the Ukraine’s protest as a victim country to the UN Security Council. The closure of one of the oil and liquefied gas exporting to Europe channels for the Russian oligarchy allows the largest Western monopolies to quickly occupy the niches in the fuel market active so far for Gazprom, Rosneft and other companies that directly determine the policy of the Russian government. It is also clear that in the context of regional “martial law” or local war, the construction of gas pipelines in the Black Sea region is hampered or completely disrupted.
One should not discount Syrian affairs, too. It will be difficult for the Russian Federation government to supply and maintain its imperialist grouping in Syria only by air or by detour, through the Baltic and northern ports – if the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles are closed for the Black Sea Fleet. In this case, the entire eastern region of the Mediterranean Sea, with the most important sea trade routes from Syria to Europe passing there, is overtaken by the USA and NATO, since without the Black Sea Fleet one weak squadron of the Northern Fleet will have little clout there.
In the event that a number of states in Western Asia and the Middle East under the US pressure temporarily close their airspace for aviation of the RF (as the aggressor state), there will be nothing to support the expeditionary force conducting the imperialistic interests of the Russian bourgeoisie in Syria. And this means that Syrian positions of Shell, British Petroleum, Morgan Bank, and other Western institutions will become stronger, and the fight for the redistribution of the most advantageous Syrian transport corridor (Persian Gulf – Europe), the country’s domestic market, oil and gas fields and raw materials processing facilities will be won by the US, British and French imperialists.
Further. The official placing (allegedly temporary and partial) of the politics and economy of the Ukraine on the war footing means the following:
— all domestic debts of the Ukrainian bourgeoisie get frozen and charged off, first of all, the debts to the working class and other workers on wages and social benefits – without resuming them in the event of the abolition of the “martial law”;
— wholesale and retail prices for basic necessities are rising, without indexation of wages and compensation payments to low-income categories of the population (without a reverse decrease in such prices after the abolition of the ML);
— the so-called “military labor service” can be introduced, which means the open transition of the Ukrainian big bourgeoisie to the system of fascist concentration camp slavery, which in these conditions provides the bourgeoisie with the desired maximum profit. Due to what? Due to the fact that the salary in this system is abolished, the rate of exploitation surges manyfild, and the allowance costs for “military” slaves are reduced to the minimum capital expenditures on the barrack-huts and the starvation rations;
— under the guise of a farce with the introduction of “martial law” by the Ukrainian “hawks”, that is, the fascist and most aggressive part of the Ukrainian oligarchy (with the American bourgeoisie behind them), the largest raid is made on the “moderate” Ukrainian oligarchs and big capitalists, who are not currently interested in a big war, – with the purpose of further redistribution of markets and capital within the Ukraine. Moreover, these “moderates” can be expropriated from two sides at once: both in Ukraine – under the slogan of “fighting Russian agents in the Ukrainian rear”, and in Russia, where they have property and capital — by routine order, under the pretext of “a sharp fall of reliability and creditworthiness of the Ukrainian partners “. In this sense, in Russia, the assets of some Ukrainian “hawks”, including those of President of the Ukraine P. Poroshenko, are also at risk of “nationalization”. This circumstance indirectly indicates that in the conflict in the Kerch Strait a certain part of Russian major businessmen and high-ranking officials having views of the capital and the market sector of their Ukrainian colleagues could indeed be interested;
— channels are officially opened for the sale of large bulks of weapons to the Ukraine by major companies in the USA and Britain. “Martial law” removes a number of international restrictions on the supply of arms through inter-governmental transactions.
This means that such American and British weapon monsters as Bell, Pratt-Whitney, Lockheed, Rolls-Royce and National Diremix do stand to gain from the Kerch conflict.Finally (and this is the main thing!), civil rights and freedoms in the Ukraine, as well as in the European countries bordering on it, and possibly in Turkey, are even more and harder collapsing. The fascist-Gestapo struggle with the revolutionary movement of the working class is intensifying to the limit. The bourgeoisie, already directly observing its historical end, is preparing for the extreme steps in its salvation, in extending the exceptional position in society. In this sense, the conflict it has started in the Sea of Azov gives amunition to the entire world bourgeoisie, because it provides a weighty reason to tighten all the fascist screws in all capitalist countries.
Today, it is the Ukrainian oligarchy that especially needs the “martial law”. The country clearly shows signs of the organization of the working masses, while the “fermenting agent” of such semi-elemental organizations is often made by the young “ATO veterans”, i.e., former participants in the war in Donbass.
Who are these people? These are our ordinary workers, employees, self-employed, who had had to participate in a small imperialist war, after which, having gained combat experience and a certain correction of consciousness, they returned to production, to their impoverished and powerless civilian life. For the time being, they are uniting mainly on economic grounds. But the development of modern capitalism itself, the aggravation of the needs and hardships of rank-and-file workers, the polarization of all social contradictions, multiplied by the combat experience, the activity of these veterans and the underground circulation of weapons, may and do result in intensified workers protests acquiring a military core, getting more and more wild and out of control. There is, in fact, just one step left to the open armed resistance to the masters and the state. That is, in the Ukrainian enterprises, where a lot of young military retirees work, it may well run as far as shooting between the police and the workers. And it’s not that obvious whom will the military units where these workers had served side with in this situation: the today’s Gestapo’s shooting of fathers, mothers and former brothers in arms will show the current military what the bourgeoisie will do with them tomorrow, and against whom it makes them fight.
This makes clear one more “rationale” for the “martial law”: under its cover, the Interior Ministry and Security Service of Ukraine receive exclusive rights and withdraw all or almost all weapons from the population, conducting at the same time an intensive search for “security risks” among the troops.
In this sense, in the sense of the struggle of the bourgeoisie against the revolutionary movement of the Ukrainian working class, the “martial law” increasingly resembles the police multimove operation, in which the army is likely to be the outside perimeter guard, within which the security forces will crush every effort opposing the ruling oligarchy. At the same time, for the sake of appearance, the government can demonstrate the movement of troops, can put something on the borders and on the Sea of Azov, since formally the Ukraine, as the offended bourgeois state, is obliged to somehow respond and somehow react to the “RF aggression”.
Yes, history knows cases where a trifle, such as a collision of ships or a shot from a cannon, etc., became casus belli – the reason for war. And any such “casus” in the most general sense is a bad sign for the whole of our working class. Yes, “martial law” is not introduced for a previously known period, it is absurd, since, having started military operations, you can never know for sure when they are to end. It is the police law that can be introduced for a certain period, as mentioned above. But in spite of the fact that a large-scale war has not yet begun, yet the single thread by which imperialism has suspended the peoples of the world, has become even thinner on November 26. This must be well understood.
Today it is vital to understand yet another thing – the fact that the social nature of the war, its true meaning, is not at all determined by where Ukrainian, Russian or any other troops are stationed, and not by who has rammed someone first or fired the first cannon. The nature of the unfolding war is determined by the policy this war continues, and the class, and the purposes for which the war is started or waged. It is clear that only one social class is interested in pre-war provocations, in preparation and in the war itself – the world imperialist bourgeoisie, opposing all working mankind, who does not need any predatory redistribution of the world, nor the continuation of this policy by military means, i.e. a world war.
At the same time it is necessary to remember the tactical point.
The fact that the Ukraine has declared “martial law” does not mean an open declaration of war against Russia. However, the peculiarity of the moment is that the line between peace and war is even more blurred: they are crawling into the war and waging the fight without openly declaring it.A couple of words about the rapid mobilization law in the Ukraine.Today, there has been some movement of troops at the level of regiment and above (brigades and other operational units) in the Kherson, Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions. On the line between Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LDPR) and the Ukraine the usual tense situation is preserved with periodic artillery shooting. Indirect signs of preparation for a major offensive are not yet noticed. There is not yet hidden mobilization observed on the Ukrainian or DPR parts. For two days, all the checkpoints on the Ukraine-DPR line were closed, but since the morning of 11/28/2018, the traffic through these checkpoints gradually resumed. Nobody knows for how long it is. Ukrainian workers’ correspondents note that there are not yet lettered (with weapons, military raw materials, ammunition, etc.) special trains to be seen on the railways of the Western Ukraine. The main warships of the Ukrainian fleet are in Odessa and Nikolaev, there are no signs of gathering in long-distance military campaigns either. But the situation is constantly changing, and it must be closely monitored.
Work Way Analytical Group
Translated by Marina Martynova