In the article “On legality of “quarantine” and “mathematical modelling” of infectious diseases”, published recently on Work Way’s website, we touched upon the issue of the groundless “quarantine measures” of the authorities, in particular, the nationwide house arrest, which the courtier press of the fascist-bourgeois authorities of Russia call “self-isolation”. By “groundless” we meant the absence of any official references to the epidemic thresholds for outbreaks of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza in the Russian Federation, and to hygienic standards, which are expressed in this or that measure imposed by the authorities when the above-mentioned thresholds get exceeded.
Following the publication, our readers started asking some rather reasonable questions:
- So, what are these epidemic thresholds for outbreaks of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza?
- And what are they exactly, those measures to combat epidemics of influenza and acute respiratory infections, prescribed in the sanitary regulations of the Russian Federation?
- What are the duration and proportions of influenza and ODS epidemics, and when to expect the highest peak of these epidemics?
Actually, the answer to the second question is more or less clear to our adult readers – at the very least, they should know that universal quarantines and “self-isolation” have never before been practiced during flu and ARVI epidemics. And never before have healthy people been tested during these epidemics. The infected used to be identified and isolated from healthy people when they showed symptoms of the disease. The isolation of sick people has never been something overly dramatic, it was always recommendatory and was met with general understanding among the population. No one wants to be lying around with fever, headache and other “joys” of the disease, or, god forbid, experience the dubious “pleasure” of finding oneself in a hospital bed with this or that post-flu complication. No one wants to infect their child or old mother with the flu.
This year, unfortunately, was also marked by epidemics of ODS and influenza in some regions of our country. And once again, when we talk about an epidemic, we mean a local exceeding of the scientifically established (proven by many years of practice) epidemic threshold for this or that particular disease.
Here is, for example, a 7-page document from the official website of The Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing, better known in Russia as Rospotrebnadzor: Resolution № 175 from 10/02/20 “On measures to limit the spread of influenza and acute respiratory infections in Nizhny Novgorod region». Please study this paper. It was compiled and signed by the chief state doctor of the region Natalia Kucherenko.
Let us analyze this document. Let us quote from the second paragraph:
“During the period from 03/02/2020 to 09/02/2020, 33 545 people applied for medical aid in Nizhny Novgorod region with symptoms of influenza and acute respiratory infections, the sickness rate was 105,45 per 10 thousand citizens, including 18 976 in the city of Nizhny Novgorod, with the infection rate 149,72 per 10 thousand citizens. There is a 40% and 46.8% excess of epidemic thresholds among the total population, both in the region and in the city of Nizhny Novgorod, respectively. Maximum excess of epidemic thresholds is observed among children from 7 to 14 years old and adults.
Compared to the previous week, number of cases of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections among the total population increased in the region by 28.6%, in the city – by 20%. The growth of sickness rate is observed in all age groups”.
Please note that we are not talking about infected people and not just about sick people, but about people whose sickness became severe enough for them to consider it necessary to seek medical help. Also note that the number of people who fell ill is not cumulative. Only newcomers are registered in the document (within a week). And the number of the newly arrived sick people is compared with the corresponding number from the previous week.
Now, here’s another quote:
“As of 10/02/2020, in 17,8% of educational institutions of the region the educational process has been completely or partially suspended because of mass outbreaks of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections among students (pupils).
According to the results of laboratory tests, mainly the viruses of highly pathogenic influenza A (H1N1)09 are circulating among the sick. In order to provide a set of preventive and anti-epidemic measures, minimize the consequences of the rise in cases of influenza and acute respiratory infections, and in accordance with Art. 51 of the Federal Law of the Russian Federation from March 30, 1999 № 52-FZ “On sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population”… (listing articles and regulations governing the prevention of these diseases – Ed.).
I HEREBY ORDER…”
So, the epidemic thresholds were exceeded by 40-47%, the sickness rate was about 1.05-1.5% of the population per week. Moreover, the normal functioning of 1/6 educational institutions by that point had already suffered from the epidemic one way or another. Nevertheless, no one presented it as a global catastrophe. Because the first paragraph of the chief physician’s resolution clearly states, and we quote (I underlined some phrases):
«1. 1. The heads of municipalities in the region have to be given the following recommendation:
1.1. In case of threat of occurrence or spread of influenza and acute respiratory infections among the population, introduce a complex of necessary restrictive (quarantine) measures on the basis of reasonable proposals (prescriptions) of local chief state doctors (Article 31 of the Federal Law of the Russian Federation from March 30, 1999 № 52-FZ “On Sanitary and Epidemiological Well-being of the Population”)…
1.4. Inform the population about preventive measures against influenza and ODS in mass media and on official websites of district administration”.
From paragraph 1.1. we conclude that the threat of occurrence and spread of these diseases is not presented as potentially nationwide, although there is an epidemic situation in the region and in the regional center. A differentiated approach is recommended everywhere, based on the specific location and the specific situation there.
Furthermore:
“2. To the heads of the local divisions of Rospotrebnadzor.
2.1. Promptly inform local administrations about the epidemiological situation concerning the incidence of influenza, acute respiratory viral infections and community-acquired pneumonia and make timely and reasoned proposals in regard to the introduction of restrictive measures against the escalation of the epidemiological situation concerning the incidence of influenza, acute respiratory viral infections and community-acquired pneumonia…..
2.4. Raise public awareness concerning the means and methods of individual and collective protection from influenza…”.
“3. The Minister of Health of the Nizhny Novgorod Region (A.V. Smirnov) and heads of medical organizations of all forms of ownership must ensure:
- Additional hospital beds and phased conversion of hospitals and departments for hospitalization of patients with influenza, acute respiratory viral infections and community-acquired pneumonia”.
So, we just learned that even exceeding the epidemic threshold by one and a half times is not the reason for immediate deployment of new facilities: the chief physician of the region calls for ensuring phased (temporary) re-profiling of hospitals. And this excess is not covered anywhere in the media, no one is raising public awareness of the epidemic situation at the national level. The sickness rates are never mentioned, they’re just there somewhere, on rarely visited pages of the regional administration’s website.
Other measures from this resolution include: observance of scheduled airing and optimal room temperature, suspension of employees with signs of respiratory disease, limiting sports and cultural events indoors and many others. However, limiting mass events in enclosed spaces does not mean their cancellation! For example, it is recommended:
“to increase the duration of the break between film screenings and performances in order to conduct sanitary procedures”.
In case of the absence of 20% of students (pupils) due to respiratory diseases, school classes and student groups in educational institutions are to be taken under special control.
For an approximate understanding of the duration and coverage of seasonal epidemics of influenza and acute respiratory diseases, let’s take a look at the forecast for the current 2019-2020 season for the Nizhny Novgorod region, as reflected in the Decree “On measures to prevent influenza and acute respiratory diseases in Nizhny Novgorod region in the pre-epidemic and epidemic period of the 2019/2020 season“, which was compiled by that same chief physician Kucherenko N.S. with reference to the indicators of the previous season.
Quote:
“During the epidemic period of the 2018/2019 season, within 3 weeks (from January 28 to February 17) 85 thousand people in the region suffered from acute respiratory viral infections and influenza (2.7% of the population of the region), which is much less than during epidemics in previous years”.
We conclude that the epidemics of seasonal respiratory diseases last for several weeks and cover several percent of the population with minor excesses of epidemic thresholds. The decree states that it is necessary to continue the prevention of acute respiratory diseases and influenza, following the example of autumn 2018.
But the main thing is that the word “infected” is not mentioned anywhere. They only ever talk about the “sick” or “recovered”, and by those the statistics implies people who have actually applied for medical help.
So, basically, these two documents quickly demonstrate that there are reasonable quarantine measures for AVRI and influenza, with references to regulations and epidemic thresholds, and they also demonstrate what the approximate duration and magnitude of these epidemics is and during what time of year they occur.
At the same time, no one makes it a secret that influenza and other acute respiratory infections are quite serious diseases, which in some cases can lead to certain complications, especially dangerous for the so-called risk groups: small children, the elderly, people with certain chronic diseases, pregnant women, etc.
Of course, these measures cannot be called fully scientific either, because they also contain some practices that have not been verified by time, the current situation or common sense, and there are paragraphs containing absolutely unjustified demands that are not relying on any of the existing standards or previous human experience of fighting influenza and acute respiratory infections (I underlined some phrases):
“3.5. Collecting epidemiological anamnesis from persons with signs of influenza and acute respiratory infections, including the information about traveling out of the Nizhny Novgorod region within 2 weeks before the disease, possible contacts with sick patients, the presence of flu vaccines.
8.2 Provide public transport workers (drivers, conductors, cashiers, etc.) with a stock of disposable masks (the number of which must be based on the duration of the work shift; it should also be required to change the mask at least once every 3 hours) and hand sanitizers.
10.6. Inform the management of Rospotrebnadzor in Nizhny Novgorod Region and its regional departments about students and teachers returning from China“.
The effective practice of wrapping the faces of public transport workers in masks during epidemics of influenza and AVRI is absent in human history. It is pseudoscientific and only has antisocial functions: causing anguish, panic, the onset of phobias, the atmosphere of mistrust and suspicion of various degrees up to the state of paranoia. In addition, this measure opposes passengers and transport workers.
Bearded academic virologists on TV, who assure us that “the mask won’t hurt, you just need to wear it properly and change it often“, should be dragged to a horse stable like in the old days and given a proper whipping, for cognitive stimulation. The fact is that medicine is also a deeply social science, and the psychological and social consequences of any invasive measures must be carefully weighed before they are thrown into public discussion. This also applies to collective protective measures. Medicine must serve society, not the other way round.
The last paragraph (10.6.) is worth a special mention.
It was brought up because of the inclusion of coronavirus infection (2019-nCoV) in the list of dangerous and socially significant diseases (occupying the 16th position on the list), which is not justified by any standards and scientific information from the field of evidence-based medicine. Those dangerous diseases are plague, leprosy, HIV, cholera, hepatitis B and C, sexually transmitted infections, arthropod-footed viral fevers and viral hemorrhagic fevers, helminthiasis, diphtheria, malaria, sap and melioidosis, pediculosis, acariasis and other infectious diseases and finally tuberculosis. As you see, 2019-nCoV is in some “good” company!
This inclusion happened without any wide coverage and multiple repetitions in the media, quietly, covertly (And for a good reason! Since at that time, the only source telling about the disease’s achievements were the Chinese media!). There is no reference to the justification for this inclusion. There were no justifications then and there still aren’t any! The government got some “expert advice” and adopted the Resolution № 66 from January 31, 2020 “On the introduction of changes in the list of diseases posing a threat for society“. The document simply establishes the fact of including an additional item on the list as if it were a proven fact. Signed by: Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation M. Mishustin.
The fact that the disease COVID-19 is no more dangerous than an ordinary seasonal AVRI was solidly proven beyond any doubt in our article “The great coronavirus hoax“. This is an undeniable fact, confirmed by all further developments. The article also proves that this fact was known to all interested parties right from the start.
This was confirmed by the online summit of “Big 20”, held in late March and dedicated to the “COVID-19 pandemic”, where, as it was rightly noted in the above-mentioned article, the person sitting next to Putin was not a representative of the Ministry of Health or Rospotrebnadzor, but the Minister of Finance. (In case you didn’t know: the anti-epidemic action is not governed by the Ministry of Health, it’s governed by Rospotrebnadzor which in 2012 stopped being subordinate to the Ministry of Health and since then has been subordinate only to the President). And after all this someone has the nerve to claim we have a pandemic of black plague variety?
So, it’s not really surprising that in paragraph 10.6, the Chief Sanitary Doctor Kucherenko N.S. was sheepishly silent about the reasons and the meaning of informing Rospotrebnadzor about students and teachers who had returned from China: clearly, she understands perfectly well that what is going on is tomfoolery and fraud.
But let’s leave global and ethical issues for now. At the moment, we must focus on the introductory part of the decree, which contains the parameters of the epidemiological situation, based on which Kucherenko decided to carry out a number of quarantine and sanitary measures in the region.
***
And what do we see in Nizhny Novgorod Region now?
We should note that no decrees from Kucherenko, similar to Decree № 175, analyzed above, have been issued in regard to the coronavirus infection. From now on, Kucherenko only refers to that secret Decree 66 of the Government of the Russian Federation from 31.01.2020, according to which COVID-19 is on the list of ultra-hazardous diseases.
That’s rather strange, because that decree does not directly regulate any actions.
For example, here’s a paper named “On the court decision on compulsory placement under medical supervision and full examination“, in which Kucherenko appeals to Resolution No. 66 and insists on the arrest (compulsory 14-day examination) of two healthy people who were foolish enough to meet with their relative that later allegedly became sick with COVID-19. And Kucherenko won the case!
Why 14 days, where did these two weeks come from? Is it what some scientific study suggests? Has there been a scientific study on this at all?
Obviously not! Here’s another document which can be found on the same website, called “On the study of the incubation period of COVID-19“, a document that is supposed to provide the rationale for a two-week quarantine, just one page in length (once again, the underlining was done by me):
“Analysis of publicly available data on infections caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which is the causative agent of respiratory disease COVID-19, made it possible to estimate an average incubation period of 5.1 days. This median time period, which runs from the time of infection to symptom manifestation, suggests that a 14-day quarantine period, used for persons presumed to have been infected with coronavirus, is a reasonable precaution.
The analysis suggests that about 97.5% of people with symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 start having them within 11.5 days since getting initially infected. Researchers estimate that per every 10,000 people placed in a 14-day quarantine, there are only about 101 people who will show symptoms of infectious disease after being quarantined”.
Well then, where is that analysis and what publicly available data it relies on, exactly? Ah, here it is: “New study on COVID-19 estimates 5.1 days for incubation period” dated 10/03/2020. Well, well, well, if it isn’t going to be an interesting read! But wait, what is this? Turns out that one page of the Russian document is merely the translation of the essence of the “study of American scientists” from Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Bloomberg, which is two-page long!
In fact, all those calculations of some illusive “researchers” are what Russians call “one granny told me”, or OGTM, meaning a claim that isn’t based on any evidence. These “researchers” claim that “their calculations” (secret calculations, based on unknown but “publicly available data”) allegedly confirmed earlier calculations of the incubation period of the disease. The fact that the new calculations and the previous ones match and have identical percentages, is absolutely striking! In case of such stunning coincidences, people don’t usually use words like “suggests”, “allow to suggest”, etc. In such cases, people are way more confident.
Let’s take a look at the previous calculations (published in early March, 2020): the authors themselves admit that their sample was non-representative (mainly the most severe cases were considered) and that there were serious difficulties in trying to find the initial date of infection and the date when the first symptoms started to appear. In other words, the data collecting was seriously flawed, with an error of tens or perhaps hundreds of percent. The error factor is not mentioned at all. But that’s cheating! And there’s just more cheating in the “new calculations”.
The authors will not get held responsible for this, while fascists are able to put people on house arrests, using a two-week time lag to procrastinate on fateful decisions.
To sum up, we have taken a brief look at the mathematical flaws of the calculation model from the point of view of the bourgeois mathematics, which is apparently “always objective and classless”. However, we know fully well that “classless” mathematics doesn’t exist! For further clarification, see article “A few words about mathematics and why the bourgeoisie needs sociological surveys”. (To paraphrase a classic quote, we can say that bourgeois mathematicians are ready to accept any theorem as true as long as it is beneficial to the ruling class).
In reality, even an immaculate calculation of the “COVID-19 incubation period”, with the indication of the percentage error, will not be scientific since it is based on flawed data. Using this data was not scientifically grounded and it was not critically analyzed.
We have already answered this question in the previous part of this article.
There we understood that the available data on COVID-19 cannot be honest: the nature of the epidemic development of COVID-19 in different countries and even in different regions of the same country is fundamentally different! No explanation of this phenomenon is provided. This means that the data is biased. It cannot be related to the same disease even, provided it was actually collected from patients. Or it’s fake, that is, it was invented by some interested party.
Those pathetic attempts to explain a particular course of the COVID-19 outbreak by the use or the absence of use of certain “quarantine” measures are not materialistic. Why not? Because the “quarantine” measures themselves are NOT constraining! They are pseudoscientific, representing a parody and imitation of real quarantine measures.
And what are the truly scientific and proven methods to combat epidemics? Due to the extreme importance of this information, I will quote several paragraphs from Work Way’s article “On the fight against epidemics”:
“The main measures to eliminate mass outbreaks of infectious diseases are as follows:
- It is necessary to break the chain of the transmission of the infection from person to person. This is achieved by identifying a specific source of infection with its subsequent isolation or elimination. This means finding and isolating the person or group of people, who have become a direct source of the infection in the district, city, etc., from the rest of society. If we are talking about animal carriers of the infection, they must be culled with a guarantee of decontamination.
- It is necessary to stop the transmission of the disease from a sick person to a healthy one. This is the continuation and the development of the first paragraph. Specific patients with infectious diseases are identified and hospitalized for treatment. In this case, the person is identified as being sick with a contagious disease by a qualified physician – based on a scientific analysis of the obvious and hidden signs of the disease. All residents of a particular area, where an outbreak of an infectious disease has been detected, cannot be declared sick collectively, cannot be automatically lumped together in the same sick category. Those who had been around the sick patient cannot be quarantined – just on the basis of being suspected to have the infection.
Any suspicions must be motivated by facts and scientifically based. If such people have no external signs of the disease, but there is a probability that they have been infected, then such people are examined at home or at work during the scheduled medical checkups. In special cases, such people are subjected to medical observation. If it turns out that the person is sick and can really infect others, they are hospitalized.
This raises the question – what is medical examination and what is quarantine?
Observation is a set of measures to prevent the spread of an infectious disease outside its localized hotspot, or outside the affected area – if a bacteriological weapon has been used against the population.
Medical observation involves a single set of interconnected measures, in which all requirements are mandatory, namely:
- general and detailed explanation of the nature of the contagious disease and its consequences to the population, explanation and justification of all measures to eliminate the infection, explanation of the need for these measures;
- restriction of entry to and exit from the infectious disease site;
- prohibit the transfer of any property, transport, cargo from the affected area without prior disinfection;
- restriction of communication between residents of the affected area and residents of surrounding neighborhoods; that said, police cordons, isolation of the population, fragmentation into small groups, etc. are not applied, there is no permit regime; there are only medical checkpoints and decontamination posts;
- constant medical monitoring of residents of the affected area – in order to identify sick patients in time, isolate them and hospitalize them;
- emergency disease prevention with antibiotics, vaccines and other drugs among the entire population of the affected area;
- intensified sanitary and hygienic measures and thorough medical control over their implementation
During the period of the medical observation, the population of the affected area, except for those hospitalized, leads a normal work and social life, along with the population of surrounding neighborhoods (blocks, etc.) that are not infected.
“If an outbreak of an acutely contagious disease, easily transmitted from person to person, is detected and proved in the district, a quarantine is established in the lesion area.
Quarantine is a continuation and development of medical observation, when it becomes insufficient. It additionally provides:
- breaking the population of the lesion area into small groups with the establishment of a strict regime of disease prevention, food and drink sanitation, medical examination;
- establishing curfew to ensure that all residents follow quarantine rules;
- complete isolation of the affected population from neighboring districts (neighborhoods, etc.) for the entire period of quarantine.
Access to the center of infection is allowed only to those services and persons who come to eliminate the infection or get rid of the consequences of the bacteriological infection. The supply of food, medicines and water to the center of infection is centralized and carried out under strict medical and sanitary control.
Quarantine limits production activity in the center of infection. Therefore, there is always a strive to reduce the quarantine period to a minimum. It means maximum effort and every means available are applied in order to eliminate the infection. All quarantine measures are a single whole and are conducted in unison. Omitting a single measure or reducing quarantine to just one or two the most “convenient” measures brings the positive effect of the quarantine down to zero and turns it into a profanation. Furthermore, the main quarantine measure are the medical and sanitary ones and none other.
- “It is necessary to make people insensitive to this disease (immune).
All these measures are applied together, as a complex. They form the basis of the fight against the epidemic. But sometimes, in this or that particular case, a single measure, the main link in the fight, comes to the fore. For example, for a sharp decrease in typhus cases, it’s quite enough to destroy lice and treat clothes with hot steam. It’s obvious that in this case, the patients are actually isolated from the healthy and hospitalized.
“If the necessary effort is not made, there are only two explanations:
– either governments are unwilling to truly fight the epidemic and leave their people to become extinct;
– or these governments are faking the epidemic in order to eliminate citizens’ rights and freedoms, rob them and establish a police regime.
With regard to today’s “epidemic”, we logically choose the second option, because in the first case, governments and those close to them would clearly isolate themselves from the infected population. Such things have taken place before in history, they are described in the cited article.
***
Okay, let’s see how the current data on the epidemiological situation regarding coronavirus in Nizhny Novgorod region is presented. (Here and further we will accept that COVID-19 actually exists as a disease and is different from other AVRI). Here is a media report from 04/05/2020. Quote (I underlined some passages ones again):
“As of May 4 in Nizhniy Novgorod region 157 more cases of coronavirus infection have been confirmed. Samples for coronavirus have been verified and extracted from 2852 citizens in the region. 389 people have recovered and have been discharged. In total 90277 people have been tested.
“Earlier in Nizhny Novgorod region 2695 cases of coronavirus infection were recorded. 16 people died, 350 patients recovered and were discharged from hospital”.
Please note that, unlike the reports on the epidemic situation with influenza and AVRI, now instead of “SICK”, a new term has been introduced – “THE INFECTED”. The number of deaths and discharges from hospitals is also given. But were all infected people placed in hospitals? After all, in case of influenza and ARVI, and this is AVRI (acute viral respiratory infection), getting infected does not guarantee that a person will get sick. Just the opposite! In the vast majority of cases, and this cannot be denied even by the authorities clearly interested in hysteria and panic around this disease, the infection is asymptomatic, that is, a person does not get sick.
And again, in the vast majority of cases even those who do get sick experience a mild cold, as in the case of any other ARVI. Such patients do not require serious hospital care – it is an excessive burden on the health care system and a very serious discomfort for the sick person themselves. And only a few percent of those suffering from acute respiratory infections, normally also having some other serious disease, will experience complications. The rest do not need to be hospitalized!
But in the mass notification of citizens there is no information on how many people who have been declared infected actually got sick and in what form. They make it sound like all the “infected” (2695 people), except for the “recovered” ones (350 people) and those who have already “died” (16 people), are between life and death, and doctors are fighting for their lives! This is clearly an attempt to create unnecessary hype and the atmosphere of anxiety; that’s psychotropic warfare against the population.
Also, how are the infected identified, how is COVID-19 diagnosed? The diagnosis is pseudoscientific, just as the rest of the measures! Mass testing of a healthy population is unreliable: the margin of error is huge (we will not analyze the errors of testing in this article – but they are just as pseudoscientific as the above-mentioned research on establishing the “incubation period”).
Identifying asymptomatic infected people is not an effective measure to slow down the disease such as influenza and acute respiratory infections, given that from such people the virus is transmitted to uninfected people tremendously less frequently, especially now, in May. Also, this detection does not have any impact on relieving the symptoms of the disease, in case the infected person does develop them. On the contrary, the news of being infected, amidst all the horror stories and mass hysteria, may weaken the person’s immunity and increase the chance of developing symptoms.
On top of it, the infected person and their close ones are subjected to serious public pressure and suffer from a powerful reduction of rights and freedoms. But the main thing that distinguishes COVID-19 from other acute respiratory infections is that the infected person is pronounced sick in advance! (There is, of course, not a single publication that scientifically substantiates this diagnosis).
And remember, while all of this is happening, the established method of identifying the infected is extremely inaccurate and the disease remains just an ordinary acute respiratory virus. Just because a bunch of repulsive scammers and scoundrels single-handedly decided (namely, in Government Decree №66 from 31/01/2020), that COVID-19 is as dangerous as black plague, doesn’t mean it is!
Equally inaccurate is the diagnosis of really sick people. The symptoms of what is called COVID-19 do not differ from the symptoms of other acute respiratory infections, if only because a whole group of viruses can activate in a sick person, among which the notorious coronavirus may also be present, but in order to identify which of the viruses is the most pathogenic, one has to conduct a special research. In complete disregard of this, the novel coronavirus is given the priority by default and the person is “treated” for COVID-19.
Hence all the pseudoscientific and unsubstantiated hysteria around the virus, propagated by the fascist “academics”, claiming that “the virus affects all human organs and systems,” without any reference to evidence-based medicine! See for yourself, quote:
“At the moment, the clinical picture of COVID-19 is diverse and often similar to the manifestations of other viral respiratory infections”.
No surprise there! If this goes on, COVID-19 will soon become “similar in its manifestation” to labor fever.
Needless to say, the diagnosis of death “from COVID-19” is subject to the same quasi-scientific arbitrariness and forgery as the diagnosis of illness and dispensary of the healthy population.
***
Let’s return to Nizhny Novgorod region. So, from now on, the management and control over counter-epidemic measures are subject to new rules. If in Decree №175 from 10.02.20 the chief sanitary doctor Kucherenko N.S. was ordering this and that, now she’s keeping mum. She no longer orders, but presents the new recommendations as fait accompli, even though they are antisocial (a), pseudoscientific (p) or downright trivial (t) (see in brackets):
“Recommendations for the population concerning measures to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus infection during May holidays:
Continue to strictly observe the regime of self-isolation (a, p)
Limit contacts as much as possible: (а)
– Refrain from visiting relatives or friends, or from having them over; (a)
– Refrain from going for a walk and picnics outside; (a)
– Try not to endanger persons from the risk group (over 60 years of age, with chronic somatic diseases); (a, p, t)
– Use modern means of communication for small talk and holiday wishes. (а)
If you are able to observe the regime of self-isolation at your country house – you must adhere to the following rules:
On the way to your country house:
– Give preference to private transport or cab (so you can minimize contact with outsiders); (a)
– When using public transport: use a mask (a, p), keep a distance (not less than 1.5 m) (a, p), after touching publicly accessible surfaces (doors, handrails), treat hands with skin antiseptic (a, p); do not touch the face with unsensitized hands (a, p), do not eat on public transport (a, p)
At your country house:
– do not extend the circle of communication (a), spend the May holidays with those who you have been previously in contact with (in the same apartment on self-isolation) on weekdays (a); avoid contacts / communication with neighbors in the area (a), observe social distance (1, 5 m); (a, p)
– elderly citizens (over 60 years of age) and those with chronic diseases should stay at home; (a, p, t)
– observe hygienic measures: wash your hands thoroughly with soap for at least 30 seconds. (p, t)
Safe nutrition:
– Before cooking and eating, wash your hands under running or bottled water or treat your hands with skin antiseptic; (t)
– observe the temperature regime of food storage; (t)
– do not drink alcohol, it reduces the ability of the body to resist infectious diseases, including COVID-19. (t)
If you feel unwell, immediately take measures to isolate yourself and seek medical attention. (t)
I would like to emphasize the fact that what we marked in the text of this stupid recommendation as (t) is, of course, trivial, but even trivial hygiene measures, if we conduct them with paranoid punctuality, become asocial and pseudoscientific.
***
Finally, I wanted to focus on two more publications. The first one has already been mentioned above – an interview with an academician Nikolai Briko, who occupies an unclear position of the main freelance (?) epidemiologist of the Ministry of Health. The interview is exclusively propagandistic, not a single scientifically grounded fact from the field of evidence-based medicine is reported by Briko, even though he is “the head of the Department of Epidemiology and Evidence-Based Medicine of Sechenov University”. Coronavirus scammers are using “heavy artillery” here, believing that the academic regalia of their propagandist equals scientific evidence.
Why did we mention this interview? Because there’s been a change in the tactics of the lying coronavirus scammers. If earlier the number of the infected people (detected in a pseudoscientific way!) used to be in the order of tens of thousands, now the scammers decided not to bother with tests and simply multiplied the 2% of positive tests by the total number of citizens. Now 2% of the Russian population is “sick” with coronavirus by default! So apparently, according to Briko, there are 250 000 “COVID-19 patients” in Moscow.
That’s how the situation with influenza and AVRI in the Russian Federation “exceeded the epidemic threshold”, through a magic trick performed by the prostitute of a scientist Mr. Briko. Well, Briko’s assumption is quite logical, if we assume that the infection has spread evenly over the capital. Let’s go on with this logic, because Briko doesn’t stop there, not even realizing that he’s digging his own intellectual grave:
“At present, the number of asymptomatic coronavirus carriers in Russia is estimated to be approximately 45-50% of all infected people. And in Moscow, their share is up to 60%. According to WHO, mild symptoms of COVID-19 have been registered in 80% of patients globally, moderate symptoms in 15% of patients and severe symptoms in 5% of patients”.
So, it appears that only 40% out of the 2% of Muscovites have “COVID-19 symptoms”. That’ll be 100 thousand people, if we accept that the population of Moscow is 12,5 million. But at the time when this interview was published (04/05/2020), there were only 74 thousand infected people in Moscow. Meaning 30 thousand people with actual symptoms. Where are the remaining 70 thousand? Have they gone unaccounted for? Lovely! It must mean that all those people only have mild symptoms of AVRI, otherwise they would end up at the doctor’s office, since when you have a severe cold, that’s what you usually do – go to the doctor’s.
Furthermore, Briko referred to WHO data on the distribution of mild, moderate and severe symptoms among those who actually have symptoms. And since Muscovites haven’t been put into any special category, the same percentage must apply to them as well. It appears that 24 thousand of them have mild symptoms. Plus 70 thousand cases that remain unaccounted for. It appears that 94 thousand out of 100 thousand, that is, 94% have mild symptoms, not 80%; only 4,5%, not 15%, have average symptoms, and only 1,5%, not 5% – severe symptoms. That’s a very serious error in estimating the severity of the disease and in assessing the level of threat and the burden on the health care system.
This means that the coronavirus testing is pseudoscientific: following non-contradictory arguments, we arrived at a contradiction. The contradiction could be avoided if 80% of those asymptomatic cases (identified using the “Briko’s method”) were indeed false positive. What is this, if not pseudoscience? But even if there are no contradictions in the WHO data, it doesn’t mean that it reflects the reality. After all, the WHO data is “abstract average”! It’s a mockery of science and any matches in their estimates is either a direct fraud or pure coincidence.
Next, Bricot states:
“This infection will undoubtedly take a special place in the group of respiratory viruses due to the virus’s special properties”.
Wow, for real? But isn’t this disease considered to be as dangerous as black plague since January 31? Briko must know that! Then how can we explain the uncertainty of his tone, as if he’s trying to predict the future? That’s how: the sly, covert and pseudoscientific inclusion of COVID-19 in the list of ultra-hazardous diseases is still kept secret from the Russian population. This is a sure crime against the people! And Briko is collaborating with the criminals.
Then Briko moves on to the predictions:
“As for the second or third wave of the pandemic – yes, they are possible. Any incidence of acute respiratory infection is characterized by the presence of two waves: during the autumn and winter period (from October to February) and less during the spring period (from March to April). It is difficult to speak about COVID-19 in this context; in many respects it will be determined by the properties of the pathogen and its mutations. But it can be unequivocally stated the coming waves will be less pronounced due to the population acquiring immunity”.
There is no scientific reason to believe that there will be some other wave, Briko did not name it, and this means that it’s a statement without any evidence to support it. So much for “evidence-based medicine”! This is just pure fraud. It is clear that Briko is performing dog tricks for the coronavirus scammers and helping to prepare the public for a never-ending house arrest.
***
Well, we will finish our current analysis of the legal and scientific aspects of the coronavirus scam with the analysis of one more episode. This information appeared in the Russian media on 04/05/2020:
“Scientists from Singapore said that the COVID epidemic in Russia could end before August 17 (they initially assumed that the epidemic could end on August 12). However, they warned that any forecasts should be treated with caution”.
For now, let us note that, although, finally, the long-awaited marking of the time period has appeared in the coronavirus “charts”, the message tells us to treat any forecasts “cautiously”. Well, then why publish it? How cautiously should you treat the message itself? No answer to that. That’s just wonderful! Let’s take a look at the “research” of these Singapore charlatans.
It simply states that
“forecasts are inaccurate for scientific reasons”.
Then it turns out that this isn’t a study, but a publication of charts made by other researchers. For example, these charts. In their opening speech, “scientists” warn that,
“all data are not a reliable representation of a complex, dynamic and heterogeneous process of pandemic realities in different countries”.
Then why use unreliable data? What can they conclude from it? On each chart there is an inscription “The forecast is unreliable, and in time it is expected to change“.
What is this! Who needs such “forecasts”? These are not forecasts, this is just guessing! Why do they not build charts on reliable data? What is the secret here? Well, the answer to this riddle is fairly simple. There are no reliable data, because they are not collected. Instead, they collect the numbers of infected people, detected with the help of pointless pseudoscientific testing. There is no data being collected on those who have actually fallen ill (ill in the scientific sense of the word: a person with the symptoms of an acute respiratory infection who has sought medical help). That is, of course they’re collecting those numbers, but are keeping mum about them, not taking them into account in their “research” and “forecasts”.
And why not? Because the higher authorities issued a command (without any scientific justification) that from now on this virus is not a typical representative of AVRI:
– this virus by default dominates all other AVRI-causing viruses and even all other human pathologies;
– the transmission of this virus is not subject to seasonal variations inherent to all other AVRI;
– surface contamination, which in most cases is considered non-epidemic for all AVRI (unlikely), is epidemic for this virus;
– the development of collective and individual immunity to this virus is subject to laws which are different from those applicable to all other viruses that cause AVRI.
It is possible to list a number of other settings concerning this virus, but it is already clear: all these default settings need extraordinary proof! Moreover, even merely suspecting a particular feature needs extraordinary proof! And it doesn’t exist. All the hype around the virus was built upon and continues to be built upon complete disregard of the principles of evidence-based medicine!
And then everybody, like apes mimicking each other, took these default settings “into consideration” and with various degree of awareness that they are engaged in complete nonsense, began to imitate an active “fight” against the “disease”.
This is just as ridiculous as the astronomists’ community suddenly deciding that the moon was flat, followed by the redrawing of all maps of the lunar surface.
Those who dare claim that COVID-19 obeys the laws of other acute respiratory infections, and on this basis conclude that the disease outbreak is long over, are confronted either with a wave of criticism or are simply ignored. Instead, we get moronic graphs showing “disease spread over time”, based on the stupid presumption that all people who test positive for “COVID” are sick, regardless of the clinical picture and the reliability of the test.
But these charts do not reflect the real situation with the disease, they are the result of the pseudoscientific testing! And the latter is subject to the will of the authorities. The “disease” will appear wherever they want. The real scale of this disease is negligible.
This scale can be estimated by looking at the data provided by Briko: 30 thousand Muscovites have or had symptoms of ARVI and were diagnosed as COVID-19 patients. God knows how many of them really were COVID-19 patients. But let’s say all of them. And let’s say half of them got sick during the last week (actually less). 12 thousand of them have mild symptoms, that is, in other circumstances, only a small number of them would ask for medical help. But let’s assume half of the patients actually informed doctors about their illness.
What we get is 9 thousand people. This shows that the morbidity rate is significantly lower than 1 ppm of the population in the largest hotspot of the disease! You don’t need to make a forecast for this outbreak and solve complex differential equations: this outbreak is greatly exceeded by the usual curve of the epidemiological thresholds in May season.
The current situation with coronavirus is a scam of the authorities. The true reasons for this scam have long been explained: it is a global overproduction crisis, which started long ago and went into an acute phase at the end of 2019.
All the “anti-epidemic” actions of the authorities have NOTHING TO DO with fighting epidemics. They are asocial, pseudoscientific or (provided there are no signs of paranoia) trivial.
***
Still, the “pandemic graphs” speak volumes! For example, they clearly demonstrate that expecting the authorities to come to their senses and cancel the pseudo-quarantine would be extremely naïve.
Conclusion: the “pandemic” began at the initiative of the powers-that-be, is currently “developing” under their control and will end only at the initiative of the masses.
О. Zotov, Ph.D. in Mathematics
